What Guyana Can Learn from Venezuela
In this GELI expert interview, energy and geopolitics strategist Dr. Tom O’Donnell explains how Washington’s energy dominance strategy is reshaping Venezuela’s oil sector and what Guyana and Suriname should learn from it.
Nine months after U.S. forces removed Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s oil fields are open to foreign operators and Washington is in the room for every major decision. For Guyana and Suriname, the question is whether that makes Venezuela a competitor, a partner, or a warning.
On October 9, we interviewed Dr. Tom O’Donnell, who studied Venezuela’s oil state from inside Caracas, on whether Maduro’s removal changes Venezuela’s direction, how the U.S. energy dominance strategy is reshaping the region, and what Georgetown and Paramaribo should take from the Venezuelan experience.
Interview Recording:
Key Takeaways
1. Foreign operators in Suriname once agreed to keep discoveries from the Chinese
Years ago, companies working offshore Suriname kept an informal pact: report no finds to China, because Beijing would go straight to the presidential palace offering schools, roads, and cash, and the Western operators would get nothing. That advantage is now fading as the U.S. pushes China and Russia out of the region’s oil.
2. Energy dominance is a hemisphere-wide strategy against China, and it will outlast President Trump
The White House energy dominance committee treats Western Hemisphere oil as a lever to supply allies like India and Japan and to deny supply to China in a rivalry that could become war. Venezuelan crude that went to Beijing as debt repayment now goes to India and the U.S. Gulf Coast, and a Democratic president would likely keep the core of the policy.
3. The 2026 law gives foreign operators majority stakes, New York arbitration, and payment through U.S. accounts
Chávez had moved PDVSA to a 60 percent stake so every dollar passed through state management, where generals took their cut. The new law lets operators run fields and take their share in crude, with payments routed through accounts in the United States before reaching Caracas, the same model Washington still runs for Iraqi oil through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
4. Six hours a day without electricity in Maracaibo is the other side of the ledger
People on the ground point to a power grid that fails daily, worse in Monagas and the Orinoco Belt, and to field equipment that has rusted or been stolen. GE has been brought in on the grid, but moving oil to a port, electricity, and schools for workers’ families depend on ministries that are no more competent than before.
5. Guyana’s 14 percent take is Norway’s story, without Norway’s institutions
Norway also signed poor early terms and raised the state take contract by contract to 70 to 80 percent, while requiring every foreign worker to train a Norwegian shadow. Guyana’s take could rise to double now that ExxonMobil has recovered its investment in the largest offshore field, but officials admit the ministries lack the people to manage it.
